In the world of bookmaker online casino , people believe that match results are not random and can be predicted (with probability). If in "Part 1: Basic concepts," people can easily find it on the internet, then in part 2, there will be much less shared content.
How do people bet on football?
We all know that the betting activity is controlled by bookmakers. Some famous bookmakers are m88, bet365, 188bet, mybookie, William Hill, etc. The common point of these bookmakers is that they all have a lot of money, and they usually sponsor clubs, stadiums, sports activities, etc., because these are their target audiences.
188BET used to be a sponsor of Bolton Wanderers.
There are many countries that have laws governing football betting, such as Malaysia, Philippines, etc., where football betting is allowed legally or illegally. Regardless of the legality of the activity, bookmakers will establish agents in each country with the task of dealing with legal factors, policies, lobbying for the system, and acting as a general station to transfer money abroad.
These agents will establish a system of secondary agents and branches to persuade, guide players to participate, receive bets, and pay bets to players. The agents will receive different commission rates from the bookmakers depending on the amount of betting they receive. When starting to play and with a small amount of money, you will be supported and guided very enthusiastically by the brokers. When you have played a lot and with a large amount of money, you will be instructed more carefully about the odds, different handicap bets, etc., and that is when you are about to lose more money.
If you play online, you can go directly to the bookmakers' websites to carry out transactions. Trust me, Vietnamese people are very interested in red and black betting, so all major bookmakers' websites support Vietnamese.
What is the bookmakers' alliance?
Vietnam certainly does not have bookmakers, only "head balls" and some level 2 agents. If someday a football agent has a lot of money (1 billion dollars), and wants to become a bookmaker to take bets instead of being an agent as before, then they are too wrong.
Bookmakers around the world do not operate independently but form alliances with each other. The number of bookmakers is up to hundreds, but as far as I know, there are only two alliances in the world.
These are super alliances that are capable of defeating anyone.
How are odds calculated?
Have you noticed that regardless of which bookmaker you play with, the odds are the same? If there is any difference, it is the odds you receive that differ slightly when playing at different agents. There are many types of bets for each match. Every day there are many different matches, in many different tournaments from many different countries. Even the Vietnamese VLeague can be bet on. Football fans call them "grass games". Grass games, and other sports such as tennis, for example, will help addicts be able to crush, play every day instead of waiting until the weekend, playing only a few matches throughout the week.
So how are the odds calculated?
To calculate the odds, the league uses a combination of expert panels and machine systems. These odds will be continuously adjusted throughout the match. The odds will be calculated based on:
Betting history of players for this match in the past and similar recent matches of the tournament.
Actual money allocation of players.
The league's profit objectives and risk tolerance.
Actual developments of the match.
How do bookmakers manage risks and profits?
The alliance will plan for each bookmaker to be responsible for one or several countries near their location. The bookmakers will send representatives to purchase tickets for all matches (season tickets) of the teams. During the matches, there will be people on the field using sports tools to update the situation. Whenever the ball enters dangerous areas (within the penalty area), prepares for a dangerous free kick, or earns a corner kick, it will be immediately updated in the system. The system will automatically update the odds or temporarily suspend certain odds that players cannot bet on during dangerous situations.
Clearly, no bookmaker in the world has enough resources to implement these tasks alone. Therefore, they have to form an alliance and coordinate their work, delegate tasks, share risks, and share information with each other.
Who is the match fixer? A crucial part of this field is the players, referees, and teams. They are part of the game, even decision-makers in the game, and match-fixing scams come from them. Therefore, in countries that allow gambling, they also strictly regulate that players who directly influence the match results are not allowed to bet on their own matches.
But the question here is: who is the match fixer, the player, or the bookmaker? In reality, bookmakers are very close to clubs and to some extent, if they want to, they can intervene in the match results. However, that is not the goal of the alliance.
To ensure an exciting game, bookmakers will show that they are not too smart, not always predicting accurately. Players will not want to play if all matches are played according to the bookmakers' odds. They want players to believe that they can calculate better than the bookmakers. Predicting inaccurately and losing in some specific matches is not a problem for the alliance.
The alliance only adjusts match results if they want to eliminate a bookmaker who does not listen or join the alliance. This rarely happens.
Therefore, match-fixing and match-buying are games of the mafia and the players and referees.
In Part 3: "Game theory, statistical probability, and how to win betting," I will share something that very few people know.
If you have ever played gambling, you know the concept of upfront money, or the money you pay to participate. It's the same with online football betting. Bookmakers will cut a little from both sides. Simply put, if there is no handicap, betting 1 will earn you 0.9x if you play online, even 0.8x if you play offline (x depends on each agent).
Bookmakers provide odds, but not to predict the correct outcome. Their goal is profit. In high-risk businesses, profits are even higher. For example, if Mexico plays against England, experts predict that England will be given a 1 goal handicap, which is the most likely probability (30%), draw 20%, and the rest are probabilities of other scores. However, the league finds that the number of England fans is too high compared to Mexico, so they can accept a little risk when they offer attractive odds for England only giving a 1/2 handicap to Mexico, so that more people find it attractive and are more daring to bet. The league accepts risk to earn more money.
In the remaining matches, since both teams have few fans or equivalent numbers of fans, they will use a safe ratio, which is profitable for bookmakers.
How does online betting operate?
In betting, people often see that players tend to deposit more money just before and during the match. Even betting agencies must have enough cash reserves to be able to pay out winnings for large bets. When betting online, players can easily deposit money into their accounts through bank transfer, ATM or other forms of electronic payment. After the match, if you win, your winnings will be deposited into your account, or if you lose, the betting amount will be deducted from your account balance.